No Deal, steady Buck, new month, end of Q2

There is an appetite for a deal, per the White House, and Iranian demands continue to be on the table, but both countries targeted military facilities, which makes the prospect of peace more elusive. Meanwhile, energy markets remain on alert after Brent Crude oil prices rose to $94.00 per barrel, a 2.8% jump that ends a streak of three-day losing sessions. For now, the latest development is about the two countries exchanging messages about amendments to the draft deal.

Equities are still looking to climb in spite of war troubles, with artificial intelligence investment feeling confident as companies enter new territory. NVIDIA’s stock price was up 1.8% on the announcement that the firm will enter the PC market, while Microsoft rose 3.8% as a rally formed for software producers. Furthermore, the U.S. Commerce Department moved to end a loophole that seems to have led companies to export the world’s most advanced chips, Nvidia’s Blackwell processors, to Chinese subsidiaries located outside of China.

As far as the domestic front goes, data points will be plenty this week, closing with the main event on Friday featuring Non-Farm Payrolls. Later today, we get S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index figures for May at 9:45 am, and later at 10 am, we get surveys from the Institute of Supply Management.

EUR ⇓

The Euro lost value in May, dropping by about 0.7% to the Buck as data revealed stagnation, and the lack of progress on a resolution to the Middle East chaos is keeping Europeans on edge. While geopolitical headlines will be key to moving the needle somewhat, this week’s economic indicator releases will focus on inflation, with the Consumer Price Index out tomorrow, while the Producer Price Index is out on Wednesday. Retail Sales and PMIs will also come out throughout the week, but the most likely relief for the Euro and other FX will materialize if a deal is finally agreed upon.

MXN ⇓

The Mexican Peso improved by as much as the Euro lost to the Buck in May, 0.7%, rising as energy fuels became more expensive and highly demanded. The Mexican data lately has not painted the picture of a strong economy, but rather one that has been experiencing contractions across some measures. Q1 Gross Domestic Product fell by (-0.6%), making the annual average just 0.2%. With growth elusive, expect pressures on the resilience of the Peso. There is not a ton to digest this week, but surveys will look at gross investment and vehicle sales.