More of the same, most likely

A busy end to October in terms of risk events has not translated into much drama from an FX perspective. The only major surprise came from the RBNZ, leaving rates unchanged to the kiwi’s detriment. The Fed, ECB, BOJ and BoC, in contrast, all largely met consensus expectations. Meanwhile, in the UK, Chancellor Healey succeeded in making the UK budget a non-event, punting major spending decisions out into 2027. As a result, market crosscurrents underpinned much of the past week’s price action, with French fiscal risks, Middle East tensions, and AI-related spending worries still the primary FX drivers.

The coming week looks similar, at least on paper, with four more G10 central bank decisions ahead. The RBA, Norges Bank, Riksbank and BoE are all due to deliver rate decisions, with any surprise most likely to come down under. In terms of data, Friday’s simultaneous release of US and Canadian labour market reports should be one to watch. Divergent fortunes evident across the prints, if realised, could catalyze a rebound for USDCAD. Elsewise, US midterms will garner some attention, with last week’s themes also still in play if headline events fail again to prompt much market action.

You can read the Week Ahead in full here:

Authors:

Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research

Barry van der Laan, Senior FX Market Strategist

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