Monex's September 2026 FX Forecasts

Despite the various FX themes in play at the end of July, August proved more typically subdued as the Northern Hemisphere enjoyed a quiet summer holiday period. Macro catalysts were ultimately few and far between, even as Middle East tensions continued to simmer in the background. Currency intervention concerns, however, were largely unfounded, with authorities in the US and Japan holding fire on follow-up yen-buying efforts. Intervention of another form did provide some excitement though, seeing the US Treasury surprise, upping purchases of longer-duration USTs. That decision resurrected debasement worries, weighing on the dollar before Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech helped to allay immediate market fears, leaving the greenback to finish August little changed.

Even so, we think debasement remains a dynamic worthy of watching over the coming months. Fiscal concerns are rising across the US, Europe, Japan and the UK amongst others. Combined with competition for capital from the AI buildout, and upside inflation risks as the Northern Hemisphere heating season gets underway, long-term yields across G10 economies continue to grind higher in concert. And yet, even with this as a backdrop, G10 currencies are struggling to find meaningful support. This, we think, is likely to remain a theme, given policy preferences in the US and Japan, an upcoming budget in the UK, and elections in the EU. Factoring this into our updated forecasts, we have reduced the dispersion of G10 outcomes projected for the year ahead, with divergent outcomes between G10 and EM currencies a much more noticeable pattern.

Read our September 2026 FX Forecasts here:

Authors:

Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research

Barry van der Laan, Senior FX Market Strategist

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared by Monex International Markets plc, part of Monex S.A.P.I. de C.V. (“Monex”). The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All entities in the “Monex” group of companies are regulated for different products and services within the jurisdictions in which they operate. Details of the different entities can be found here. Details of the respective entities’ regulated status and available products and services can then be found on the relevant links to the individual jurisdictions’ website.