Monex's November 2026 FX Forecasts
October proved to be another grim month for the euro, seeing the single currency sink 1.5% against the dollar, the worst performance among G10 FX. That said, with market attention squarely on French fiscal incontinence over recent weeks, such underperformance is hardly surprising. It did, however, help sterling at the margin, distracting from the UK’s own public finance woes. The Chancellor escaped a non-event Autumn Budget with remarkably little market scrutiny, despite punting on almost every major spending decision. Meanwhile, energy supply worries are increasingly forcing a reaction from central banks, with divergent monetary policy beginning to return as a theme. And month-end also brought with it fresh AI build-out angst, weighing on equities and the greenback.
These latter factors, we think, will take on growing prominence in the month ahead, while acute fiscal concerns should fade somewhat. Indeed, increasingly cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to keep energy prices top of mind. In turn, that is likely to underpin market rate path assessments, alongside central bank guidance. Meanwhile, we suspect AI-related market jitters could become an increasingly common feature, with the numbers unlikely to turn reassuring for investors soon, though we remain wary of suggesting a full-scale blow-up is on the immediate horizon. That mix, in our view, points to higher volatility, less favorable carry conditions, accompanied by only modest dollar upside, and we have updated our latest projections accordingly as November gets underway.
Read our November 2026 FX Forecasts here:
Authors:
Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research
Barry van der Laan, Senior FX Market Strategist