Buck steady ahead of Fed and central bank meetings
The U.S. dollar is trading in mostly familiar ranges as markets balance lower oil prices and firmer Treasuries against renewed volatility across global technology shares.
Pulse
Buck steady ahead of Fed and central bank meetings
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed, with the euro and pound also steady and the yen holding near 164 per dollar. A pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran has helped pull crude lower, easing some inflation concerns, while talks aimed at restarting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remain in focus. The move has supported bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping toward 4.63%, even as broader risk sentiment is being tested by a sharp rotation out of chipmakers.
The main catalyst for the dollar remains this week’s Federal Reserve decision, with swaps implying roughly a 35%–40% chance of a quarter-point hike. A hike would likely be dollar bullish and could help the greenback break out of its recent range, while a hold may initially pressure the currency but would not necessarily remove the broader case for tighter policy. Equity action is also important as earnings season intensifies, with weakness in AI and semiconductor names offset in part by rotation into sectors delivering stronger results. For now, the dollar is being held in check by lower energy prices and improved geopolitical tone, but elevated inflation risks and Fed uncertainty should keep markets cautious through tomorrow’s decision.
What to Watch This Week…
- Euro-zone GDP, Thursday
- Euro-zone CPI, Friday
- FOMC Meeting tomorrow
- BOE Meeting Thursday
- BOJ Meeting Friday
- Monex USA Online is always open