A busy month end in store

The past week has seen US-Iran hostilities continuing to escalate, keeping the dollar centre of attention despite a light domestic calendar to contend with. Brent crude briefly spiked above 100 dollars per barrel, before slipping back ahead of the weekend. And despite all this, the DXY remains several tenths shy of its late June peak. But with conflict in the Middle East very much top of mind, other factors such as UK politics, and an ECB decision were ultimately overshadowed as market catalysts.

Absent a surprise ceasefire in the coming days, this pattern is likely to remain in place for the week ahead as well, albeit with the calendar of events somewhat busier into month-end. Top of the docket are rate decisions from the Fed, BoE and BoJ. All three banks are expected to remain on hold, with any guidance or lack thereof key for FX markets. Additionally, the week plays host to several CPI releases too, meaning that alongside US-Iran conflict, monetary policy expectations will contribute to the busy month-end in store.

You can read the Week Ahead in full here:

Authors:

Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research

Barry van der Laan, Senior FX Market Strategist

With research support from Jake Flood

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